Biden will Lose

 

                

        What is the most powerful political weapon of all? Low expectations. Any politician who sets the bar sufficiently low for himself can impress the electorate by slightly surpassing that bar. This is Donald J. Trump’s ace in the hole. Take for instance the passing of his brother Robert. This may guarantee Trump’s re-election for instead of saying something gross or tacky as one would expect the White House issued a simple message of grief. Also, Trump wore a mask for one day and once, in one press conference, acknowledged that COVID would get better before it got worse. Expectations are so low for Trump that if he gives a single briefing without soiling himself he is hailed at CNN for finally looking ‘presidential’. Biden will have to beat Trump by a healthy margin to overcome the effects of voter suppression but this will not happen if for the next few months Trump manages to do something minimally decent every couple of weeks. This is because white voters have made a bet and when it looks like a bet is going badly the human reaction is to double down and send good money after bad. This is a powerful mechanism that, for instance, keeps victims of fraud in the grip of cons and grifters long after it has become obvious that they have been fleeced. Every slight sign of feigned compassion and every glib promise made by the grifter re-ignites the hope that one has NOT made the awful mistake one fears, indeed KNOWS, one has actually made. Every brief flicker of human normality in Trump revives the fading hopes of white voters that they have NOT been cruelly duped. I suspect Trump understands this and knows that his mask-for-a-day routine is all he needs to revive his sagging poll numbers. Give one small sign of normal human affect and 46.5% of American voters will fall in line because hope springs eternal in someone who has made a high stakes bet they cannot afford to lose. People send money to Nigerian princes for years and years even knowing ALL about the nature of the scam. In the same spirit white voters will turn out for Trump in 2020 to redeem the sacrifices they made in his first four years. As to a Nigerian prince they will send him that one last cheque in the increasingly desperate hope that their fears are unjustified. This will get Trump to the 45-46% he needs to let cheating do the rest. Maybe this dynamic would be different if Biden himself was made of anything but plaster and cheap clap-board, if he had ANY charisma to speak of but, alas, the Democrats chose not to go that route. Nor in fact, will Biden contest a razor thin Trump victory because none of the interests he defends care who is president so long as they get another massive tax cut and more de-regulation.                           

 

 

 

 

 

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